> Hello
> I am Clay
> I keep a /timeline and have a monthly /newsletter
> You are welcome to /subscribe

November 2020

This newsletter is a collection of things I have found in the last month that I enjoyed, found interesting, or simply wanted to share.

You can follow me more closely at my personal website or if you or someone you know is looking to buy or sell a home, you can point them to my real estate website.

99.3%

According to this article by The Ringer, no Umpire has ever called a perfect game behind home plate.

Preliminarily, John Tumpane was considered too have called 135/135 pitches correctly in Game 2 of the 2020 ALCS between the Houston Astros and the Tampa Bay Rays. However, after postgame processing it was determined that Tumpane missed a strike one call to Austin Meadows in the bottom of the 2nd inning by 0.1 inches.

Noting this is really just an excuse to share Tumpane’s story of saving a women’s life in Pittsburgh in 2017.

Sim City

Do We Live in a Simulation?

Plug all these into a Bayesian formula, and out comes the answer: the posterior probability that we are living in base reality is almost the same as the posterior probability that we are a simulation—with the odds tilting in favor of base reality by just a smidgen.

These probabilities would change dramatically if humans created a simulation with conscious beings inside it, because such an event would change the chances that we previously assigned to the physical hypothesis. “You can just exclude that hypothesis right off the bat. Then you are only left with the simulation hypothesis,” Kipping says. “The day we invent that technology, it flips the odds from a little bit better than 50–50 that we are real to almost certainly we are not real, according to these calculations. It’d be a very strange celebration of our genius that day.

Around The Web

Sign Off

Do not hesitate to reply to this months email to share links, wisdom, or thoughts.

Thanks for reading. Have a great month,

Clay

You can subscribe to this site via RSS, follow on Twitter, or sign-up for my monthly newsletter: